The aim of the project is the development of a method to predict flood effects using hydrologic and hydraulic modeling. Several research topics are involved such as rainfall runoff modeling, river hydraulic modeling and mapping of hydraulic hazard.

Expected outputs

The expected results are:

• delineation of floodable areas for different rain rates;
• delineation of flood extent related to precipitation forecast.

Defining potentially floodable areas can be useful in the Early Impact phase for the identification of the priority areas where to concentrate the analysis. Moreover, the outcomes of the models allow to identify the available access to the area and the potentially affected population. The development of this kind of flood forecast system can provide enough time for the appropriate actions, being a valid tool for emergency preparedness.

Method

The method follows the typical steps of floodplain analysis: data collection and preparation, models development and execution, floodplain mapping.
Topography, land use, soil type information have to be integrated with other kind of data obtained through GIS analysis and rainfall values. These data are the input for the development of the hydrologic and the hydraulic modeling that allow to obtain the extension of the expected flood.
Furthermore the outcomes of the modeling can provide the flood depth which can be used to obtain flood hazard maps.

Current status

Currently, the research team is working on:

• testing the method on various scenarios, paying attention to the effective consequences of foregoing floods;
• the development of an automated procedure for the whole work-flow including input data collection and pre-processing.